Craps Lay Bet Strategy
When it comes to craps bet patterns, it is important for players to be provided with the chance to learn both the “right” and the “wrong” side. After all, players need to be familiar with the rules and principles of playing both sides in order to take advantage of various trends, streaks and chances once such occur.
On the other hand, knowing the different aspects of playing both on the “right” and on the “wrong” side would offer craps players the opportunity to learn the different angles of the game, which would undoubtedly help them deal manage with the experience at every level possible.
- You can see that craps strategy is a simple matter. All you need to do is make a pass line or don’t pass line bet and back it with odds. Nevertheless, many players struggle to use the correct strategy for one or more reasons. The following topics represent common scenarios that cause gamblers to approach the game poorly.
- Hedge bets usually carry a high house edge. For example, never take insurance in blackjack and never bet the any craps or any seven in craps. Exceptions can be made for insuring life changing amounts of money. I start with the Dont-Pass and lay the 4/10 and wait for a point to be set to lay odds on the Dont-Pass.
No 4 or No 10 – Good for a cold or choppy table. Basic Gist: Lay the 4 and/or the 10 and hope that 7 is thrown before the 4 or 10. Max Loss: $41 on 1 lay $82 if you lay both. You can make this bet and take it down at anytime. You can bet both the 4 and 10 at the same time. The lay bet works almost the same way, except it is the opposite. This time you wager on the point number and that the shooter will roll a seven before the point. Again, players are paid out the true odds with no house edge, along with the 5% vig commission. If you have the bankroll and want to make money faster, double up the bet to $100 each on the Lay and Place $64 across. My first time out with it I actually placed the Lay for $700 ea, and $640 across. My only mistake was playing at a $2k limit table and got banged really hard by a hot shooter on the lay numbers.
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When the term “wrong” side betting is used, it is referred to the so-called Don't Pass bets, which could be exactly as profitable as the Pass Line betting. In addition, as long as craps players realize the fact that the Don't Side strategies are quite similar to the “right” side betting, it would be easier for them to understand these strategies.
Of course, statistical correctness is of paramount importance when it comes to bet patterns. So, in order to match the Pass Line bet pattern, we would provide players with three major Don't Pass bet patters, including a more conservative one, a more aggressive one, and strongly aggressive one. None of these patterns violate in any way the 3% rule.
Don't Pass Bet with 1 Don't Come Bet
The Don't Pass bet with Don't Come bet pattern is a conservative one. It provides players with the chance to feel safe while playing and at the same time ensures a nice profit while limiting their exposure to losses. First, the player needs to make their Don't Pass bet and once the point number has been established, they must lay full double odds against the point.
After that, a Don't Come bet should be made by the player in order for them to get one Don't Come number established. Once this is done, the player should lay double odds against the point number and stop betting. In other words, this pattern is exactly the opposite of the “right” side betting in which the player puts everything at risk to the 7. In this case, players could only lose one bet in case one of their numbers repeat. And if the 7 comes out, they win both their bets.
The two Don't numbers established provide players with security, as their exposure to risk is limited to two numbers that might repeat on any roll. In addition, this pattern considerably reduces the house edge to 0.6% or 0.8% in case they choose to lay only single odds.
In case that the Don't Come number actually is repeated, the player has the right to replace it with another Don't Come bet, which is also backed with double odds. What is important for players to remember is the fact that the Don't Come bet should not be replaced more than once. This would protect them against an eventual continuous roll of point numbers that repeat and lead to the player losing.
If the point repeats, the player would come out and would try another Don't Pass bet. In case such a thing happens again, another Don't Pass bet is not recommended. The player is recommended to stop and wait for the shooter to roll a 7 to start over again in order to protect their bet against the hot roll.
Don't Pass Bet with 2 Don't Come Bets
This type of “wrong” bet pattern is a bit more aggressive than the previous one as one more Don't Come bet is added to the previous one. This pattern offers the players the chance to have half of the point numbers covered. If they have managed to successfully establish all 3 Don't numbers and back them with double odds against the 7, the player would make a win on all bets.
As a matter of fact, casino customers should be aware of the fact that the wins generated on the “wrong” side are happening a bit slower, but are more steady when compared to the wins made on the “right” side that usually happens more quickly. Of course, players made the decision on which side to bet depending on their personal preferences, comfort level and experience.
Don't Pass Bet with 2 Don't Come Bets Plus a Field and Lay Bets on 4 and 10
As already mentioned above, all of these craps bet patterns correspond to the 3% rule never to make a bet that offers the casino a house edge larger than 3%. In other words, the closer the house edge gets to 3%, the less frequently should a player use such a pattern.
This betting pattern is considered as the most aggressive one of the three.
Of course, craps players should always remember that the house advantage jumps to 5.55% in case that the Field paid double on both 2 and 12, so they are not recommended to use it. However, this betting pattern could turn out effective in order for the player to draw profit at a time when the table is cold.
The pattern starts in a similar way to the previous one, meaning that the player is required to first make a Don't Pass bet, followed by 2 Don't Come Bets. In addition, Double odds should be laid on them all. But things do not stop here. On the come-out roll, the player should make a Field bet of the same size as their Don't Pass bet.
Once a point number is finally established, the Field bet must be pulled down. This provides the player with the chance to limit the frequency of using such a bet to the come-out rolls only. Statistically speaking, if a player participates in a typical run of between 5 and 12 rolls, they would be using the Field bet in only 10% to 20% of the time, which is pretty much manageable.
The player could have a strong start when outside numbers appear. On the other hand, when the 7 appears on the come-out roll, they would lose both bets. Of course, craps players should always remember to bet when the house advantage is limited to a reasonable level to prevent them from losing large bankrolls.
The “wrong” bet pattern is supposed to protect players against eventual substantial losses over a hot roll. Players, on the other hand, should always stick to the rule that if the point repeats, they should only replace it once. The same applies to the Don't Come numbers. If a Don't Come number repeats more than once, the player is recommended for the shooter to roll a 7 and then start over again.
Still, regardless of the fact that this betting pattern is considered the most aggressive one, it could provide players with a certain flexibility. If a Don't Come toss is lost over the gameplay, the craps player is allowed to replace it with a Lay bet against the numbers 4 or 10 instead of placing a Don't Come bet. Again, double odds are set against the 4 or 10.
Playing a 'Hopping 7Â’s' Progression
By Jerry 'Stickman'
Periodically people ask me about craps betting systems. Almost all of them rely on the premise that certain numbers are due because they havenÂ’t appeared for a while. I normally tell them that in a random you cannot beat the math of the game. The house edge is the house edge. In the long term you will lose the amount of money played times the house edge.
For many that is enough, but every so often someone says they have won a lot of money on a particular system and want me to look further into it. So periodically I will devote an article to exploring some of these systems.
This article will look at a 'Hopping 7Â’s' progression.
Here is the system as it was stated to me.
- Start over with each new shooter.
- Wait seven rolls before starting the progression
- When the bet hits, take the bet down along with the win.
- Start with a $3 bet. Starting with the first bet, the progression is: 3, 3, 6, 9, 15, 24, 39, etc. always adding the previous two bets together to determine the next bet in the progression.
Here is a table that shows the bet, amount invested, win amount (taking the bet down), and profit.
What we have here is a Fibonacci progression. This and the Martingale progression are well known in betting systems. In 'up as you lose' progressions, the thought is that when your number hits you will recoup your losses and garner a little profit. The Fibonacci progression is the less aggressive of the two.
Either of these progressions works as long as two things are true. The first is you must have adequate bankroll to make it through the inevitable losing streaks you will encounter. The amount you require can be very substantial. The last row in the above table represents the 17th roll without a 7. While 17 rolls without a 7 appearing may be somewhat unusual, it is not that uncommon.
If the shooter goes 20 rolls without a 7 appearing, the bankroll required is almost $2,000.
Craps Lay Bet Strategy Against
If the shooter rolls just five more numbers without throwing a 7, the total invested is over $20,000.
And what is the shooter is extremely lucky and throws just 5 more numbers without a 7? Our hapless system player will have just over $225,000 invested.
If he should win on the 30th roll, he will win $233,000+, so maybe he thinks it is worth it.
If our lucky shooter goes five more rolls without a 7, however, the investment skyrockets to almost $2.5 million. I donÂ’t know about you, but if I had that kind of money, I wouldnÂ’t risk it on a craps game.
The second consideration before using this system is something called table maximum. Virtually every craps game has a maximum bet ranging from $2,000 and up. Most of them are $10,000 or less. That means in the unusual but very possible case of someone going 25 rolls without a 7, this player is out his entire investment of over $20,000 and he cannot continue.
Craps Lay Bet Strategy Poker
The math of the hop bet says that a player will lose 11.11 percent of all money wagered on a random shooter. That is what the math says. LetÂ’s see what some simulations say. I ran several simulations specifying a random shooter through an excellent software program called Smart Craps from DeepNet Technologies.
The first simulation did not put any limits on the maximum bet. It assumed an unlimited bankroll and no maximum bet limit at the craps table. It was very interesting watching the running edge percentage as the simulation progressed. For the first several seconds the expectation was a little over 103%. This means that if someone were playing this system and had the same results as the simulation, they would more than double their bets!
This came to an abrupt halt after about 96,000 rounds. At this point the simulation terminated because it couldn’t handle the size of the bet being placed – over 2.2 billion dollars. It may have taken a while, but the long term hit at about 96,000 player rounds.
Next I put some limits on maximum bet size. I started with 1.1 billion dollars. If the simulation hit the limit, it would restart the progression; that is, wait for seven rolls without a 7, then begin betting the progression. After 10 million rounds, the expectation was 59 percent for the house! During the 10 million rounds the $1.1 billion limit was reached 7 times. This was much worse than what the math would indicate, but with such a large limit, the long term had most likely not yet been reached.
Three more simulations were run with limits of $10,000, $3,000 and $2,000. The results more closely matched the mathematical expectations.
As you can see, all of these fell much closer to the calculated expectations.
So what does this show? You may be lucky and win for a period of time. You may even win for a long period of time. You could also be very unlucky and lose very big for a while. Eventually, however the math will catch up with you.
In the long run, you cannot beat the math of the game with random shooters. You will lose the house edge of your bets times the amount bet. Accept the fact and bet the low house edge bets. Your bankroll will thank you.
May all your wins be swift and large and all your losses slow and tiny.
Jerry 'Stickman' is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. The 'Stickman' is also a certified instructor for Golden Touch Craps and Golden Touch Blackjack. For more information visit www.goldentouchcraps.com or www.goldentouchblackjack.com or call 1-886-738-3423. You can contact Jerry 'Stickman' at stickmanGTC@aol.com